With the international break in week 45, I decided to skip the week altogether instead.
As for week 44, I ended up a grand $0.70, with a 5/11 win rate.
Compared to the previous weeks, it’s a pretty poor return, but I guess with the variance of sports betting, it’s still better than losing!
Some quick thoughts on week 44:
- Had an absolutely shocking start to the week with losses in 3/4 UCL games. Thankfully my big punt on Over 3.25 goals in the Napoli v Man City game came good this time around which helped.
- A lucky punt with a good payout on a draw between AEK and Milan actually meant I was up a little going into the weekend.
- A completely wrong bet by taking Betis instead of betting on Over 2.5 resulted in a big loss there, but thankfully sharpshooting Valencia and Liverpool bailed me out.
- Thanks to Manchester City, I managed to end the week squeaking in a $0.70 profit as they rained in the goals against Arsenal
Hopefully I’ll be able to do better in week 46 when club football resumes!
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (83/164) / 50.6%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $271.32
After a decent haul in week 38, I managed to improve upon it and I’m up $105.13 for the week, with 6/12 correct predictions.
Some quick thoughts on this week where selling my action before the game was over would be a big theme:
- I would be up a lot more, and be 7/12 for the week if I had not sold my action on the Monaco v Porto game when the score was 0-2. Sadly, my lack of guts cost me this time, and an 89th minute goal meant I lost $43 instead of winning $35. A solid $78 swing right there.
- The experience above meant I also lost in the Benevento v Inter game as I was too scared to sell my action when the score was 1-2, and was praying for a third Inter goal that never came.
- Luckily, I sold my action on the Chelsea v Man City game and did not suffer dire consequences as the game never came close to reaching the over 2.75 line, and I managed to cut my losses.
- I still think I’m betting on too many games, instead of betting larger on less games. I will be trying to rein in the temptation to bet on so many games in the coming weeks.
- I finally got a Mix Parlay right! Though I didn’t manage to win all the bets, I still managed to turn $2 into $93.85! I’ve included my first successful mix parlay win below:
As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (62/124) / 50%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$14.13
After last week’s losing week, things got worse this week as I booked a loss of $44.45.
Hopefully things will turn around but the international break in week 35 means I’ll probably have to wait awhile before any opportunities present themselves.
- Over 2.75 @ 0.84 on Man City vs Everton – LOSE $23
- Hoffenheim (+1) on Liverpool vs Hoffenheim – LOSE $40
- Under 2.5 @ 0.92 on CSKA vs Young Boys – WIN $10
- Over 3 @ 0.96 on Athletic Bilbao vs Panathinaikos – LOSE $17
- Watford (-0.5) on Watford vs BHA – LOSE $32
- Over 2.5 @ 0.99 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $12
- Over 2.75 @ -0.91 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $25
- Over 3 @ 0.89 on Liverpool vs Arsenal – WIN $56.95
- Mix Parlay – LOSE $2
- Over 2.75 @ 0.95 on Fiorentina vs Sampdoria – WIN $14.25
- Over 3 @ 0.91 on Monaco vs Marseille – WIN $18.20
- Over 4 @ 0.90 on Real Madrid vs Valencia – DRAW
Some quick thoughts/gripes about this weeks action:
- Was thinking of betting on Over 3 for the Hoffenheim game, but ended up taking Hoffenheim instead cost me there. Should always prioritise Over/Under bets when possible as I seem to do poorly on handicap bets.
- Betting on the Bilbao game was impulsive, and lead to an unnecessary loss.
- Got real unlucky on the Watford game because Britos got himself stupidly sent off and Watford couldn’t book an easy home win.
- Can’t believe how I did not clear 2.5 and 2.75 goals in the Chelsea game after they took at 2-0 lead into half-time.
Hopefully I can turn this around soon!
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (40/81) / 49.4%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$277.46
After losing money on the Persepolis FC game due to a lack of knowledge, I’ve now lost money due to emotions.
Proof that football betting really has to be approached without fear or favour.
After United won 2-0, it’s $25 down the drain, and noisy Man United friends on the horizon for a while at least.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (10/17) / 58.8%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $142.20
It’s the Europa League final tonight, and even though I wasn’t overly keen on the odds, I felt like I simply had to place a small wager on this game. The fact that the season is drawing to a close is making me less picky on my bets.
I feel like such a degenerate.
Being very anti-ManUnited, I found it difficult to take United with a handicap of -0.5, as tempting as the odds may be. A draw payout of 3.20 was quite tempting but I decided against it as it’s too specific a result to bet on in a one off cup final.
Another possibility was betting on under, but with the line at 2.25, it really wasn’t that appealing.
As such, I’ve gone for $25 on Ajax (+0.5) @ 0.94, which means I will win if the scores are tied at 90 minutes, or if (God willing) the kids from Amsterdam pull off a huge upset and beat Jose Mourinho in a final.
Fingers crossed and good luck to me!
With the Europa League semi-final coming up, this presents a potentially great opportunity. Usually, I try to avoid betting on the UEL, especially in the early stages, because the clubs are usually familiar enough to most punters to have a bet, but usually field weakened teams which lead to unpredictable outcomes.
However, I’ve decided to go for a $39 bet for Under 2.5 goals in the Manu vs Celta game, with a payout of 0.88.
Based on recent form, United seem extremely secure in defence, while also being gun shy in attack. Additionally, the last 5 games Celta played have resulted in only 1 goal scored. Though they fielded weakened teams in most of those games, it could be indicative of their lack of firepower.
Hopefully this will mean that Celta is unable to score on the night, while United might be happy defending the 1-0 lead from the first leg (thanks Jose!), and maybe nicking 1 goal on the break on the night.
Cup semi finals tend to be cagey affairs when Jose is involved, and hopefully this trend continues tonight.
Update : Game finishes 1-1, with the Celta striker missing a gilt edged chance with the literal last kick of the game. That would have cost me. Phew!
Up $34 on the night
Count : 2/3