2017 Week 49 Roundup – UCL, Bundesliga, BPL, Serie A, La Liga

After last weeks lucky escape, I told myself to take a chill pill and take it slow. All in all, I ended up ahead by $41.96 with 3/7 games going my way.

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Some quick thoughts:

After starting the week on fire with 2 in a row, I managed to reel off 4 losses on the bounce to wipe out my early fortune.

A silly punt on Stuttgart without proper research coupled with some bad luck on the Chelsea and Juve games, along with Sadio Mane’s selfishness, meant I was down a lot heading into the final bet.

Thankfully, I made a last minute decision to bet Over on the Manchester derby even though I was considering betting Under all week as Jose would definitely park the bus. Luckily, 2 scrappy City goals and some shocking defending on Delph meant the score ended 2-1 and I managed to book a profit for the week.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (101/197) / 51.3%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $608.90

2017 Week 47 Roundup – La Liga, UCL, AFC, BPL, Serie A

After a stellar week 46, I was planning to go all out to replicate what I had done for week 47.

Sadly, I was unable to live up to the previous weeks performance, and even needed a 94th minute penalty to save me from losing more than $200 instead.

All in all, I am up $77.09 for the week, and getting 5/9 right.

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Some highlights (and lowlights!) of the week:

  1. Odds that look too good to be true sometimes are. I took Betis with a +0.25 goal handicap as they were playing Eibar who were near the foot of the table, whereas Betis have been in pretty good form this season. After I woke up to a 5-0 thrashing of Betis, I knew the bookies know way more about this game than I do.
  2. Getting 2/2 in the midweek UCL games was undone by betting on the AFC Champions League Final second leg, which admittedly, I didn’t know much about.
  3. After winning about $90 betting on Chelsea and Watford, I proceeded to place a large bet on Over 3 in the Lazio game and a medium bet for AS Roma giving 0.75 goals to Genoa. Sadly, a red card for De Rossi after he conceded a penalty meant Genoa managed to equalise, and a big loss there.
  4. Things were compounded further when my big bet on Lazio was not paying dividends, and I made a brash move to bet a further $103 about 70 minutes into the game for over 1.5 goals (it was 1-0 at the time). After practically giving up on winning both my bets, I came back from the shower to see that Fiorentina had equalised to make the score 1-1 in the 94th minute, which meant I didn’t lose anything on the Lazio game!

Lessons learned : Don’t bet on leagues/teams you don’t know, and try not to gamble big to avoid a loss as I got really lucky with Fiorentina’s goal this week.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (95/181) / 52.5%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $512.25

2017 Week 44/45 Roundup – Serie A, UCL, UEL, La Liga, BPL

With the international break in week 45, I decided to skip the week altogether instead.

As for week 44, I ended up a grand $0.70, with a 5/11 win rate.

Compared to the previous weeks, it’s a pretty poor return, but I guess with the variance of sports betting, it’s still better than losing!

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Some quick thoughts on week 44:

  1. Had an absolutely shocking start to the week with losses in 3/4 UCL games. Thankfully my big punt on Over 3.25 goals in the Napoli v Man City game came good this time around which helped.
  2. A lucky punt with a good payout on a draw between AEK and Milan actually meant I was up a little going into the weekend.
  3. A completely wrong bet by taking Betis instead of betting on Over 2.5 resulted in a big loss there, but thankfully sharpshooting Valencia and Liverpool bailed me out.
  4. Thanks to Manchester City, I managed to end the week squeaking in a $0.70 profit as they rained in the goals against Arsenal

Hopefully I’ll be able to do better in week 46 when club football resumes!

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (83/164) / 50.6%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $271.32

2017 Week 42 Roundup – UCL, La Liga, Serie A, BPL, & Mix Parlay

After a decent week 41, I managed to improve upon that by being up $116.22 and 5/9  for this week.

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Some quick thoughts on the weeks action:

  1. I still cannot believe I lost on the Manchester City game. The bet should have been over and won with by half time if it wasn’t for a combination of penalty misses, posts, and off the line clearances. The ultimate banker of the week ended up with a loss. Funny thing football.
  2. Losing on the Real Betis game surprised me as well. Betis have been in such fine goalscoring form I expected them to blow Alaves away, especially without midweek action to tire them out.
  3. I placed a small punt on the Arsenal game when the score was 1-3 after my girlfriend asked me too, and then promptly sold it 10 minutes later after she asked me too again. Guess she was right the first time around as the game finished 2-5!!!
  4. I should have bet more on the Juventus game, but I was reluctant to fire a big bet on the last game of the week as I wanted to book a win. So far I seem to be doing better with Serie A this season compared to the other leagues, so maybe I should switch more focus onto the Italians!
  5. It might be prudent to start the week betting smaller and progressing as the week goes by. I realise if I lose big at the start, I tend to bet bigger on the subsequent games to recover quickly. Though this has worked out so far, my luck will run out eventually and I’ll be in a deep hole again.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (74/145) / 51%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $188.97

2017 Week 39 Roundup – UCL, UEL, BPL, Serie A, Mix Parlay

After a decent haul in week 38, I managed to improve upon it and I’m up $105.13 for the week, with 6/12 correct predictions.

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Some quick thoughts on this week where selling my action before the game was over would be a big theme:

  1. I would be up a lot more, and be 7/12 for the week if I had not sold my action on the Monaco v Porto game when the score was 0-2. Sadly, my lack of guts cost me this time, and an 89th minute goal meant I lost $43 instead of winning $35. A solid $78 swing right there.
  2. The experience above meant I also lost in the Benevento v Inter game as I was too scared to sell my action when the score was 1-2, and was praying for a third Inter goal that never came.
  3. Luckily, I sold my action on the Chelsea v Man City game and did not suffer dire consequences as the game never came close to reaching the over 2.75 line, and I managed to cut my losses.
  4. I still think I’m betting on too many games, instead of betting larger on less games. I will be trying to rein in the temptation to bet on so many games in the coming weeks.
  5. I finally got a Mix Parlay right! Though I didn’t manage to win all the bets, I still managed to turn $2 into $93.85! I’ve included my first successful mix parlay win below:

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As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (62/124) / 50%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$14.13

2017 Week 37 Roundup – La Liga, UCL, J-League, BPL, & Serie A

With the UCL and regular European games back in full swing for week 37, I was looking for a good week to rebound and build on my gains from week 36.

All in all, I am up $75.94 this week, and hopefully this will continue on!

Some quick thoughts on how this week panned out:

  • Though I keep telling myself to not make rash decisions, I still ended up taking small, but ultimately failed punts on a few games without proper research. Hopefully I’ll be able to reign in the degenerate in me and cut out these silly bets.
  • Was furious that I could not get over 2.75 goals in the Leipzig vs Monaco game in the UCL. Will make a mental note to be less trigger happy with over bets on RB Leipzig as they seem quite solid defensively.
  • Spurs v Swansea and Chelsea v Arsenal ended 0-0, which I got completely wrong as I bet over 3 on both. UCL and UEL hangover maybe? Good point to consider when betting on these teams after midweek games.
  • I have a 100& record in Serie A bets this season, which seems to be making a mockery of their defensive reputation by the fact that most of games cross the over lines. Hopefully this will continue, and I will focus and place larger bets on Serie A instead of the much more popular BPL

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As usual, I will leave Mix Parlays out of my prediction count as they’re long shots more than anything.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (50/101) / 49.5%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$169.62

2017 Week 34 – BPL, UCL, UEL, Serie A, Ligue 1, & La Liga

After last week’s losing week, things got worse this week as I booked a loss of $44.45.

Hopefully things will turn around but the international break in week 35 means I’ll probably have to wait awhile before any opportunities present themselves.

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  • Over 2.75 @ 0.84 on Man City vs Everton – LOSE $23
  • Hoffenheim (+1) on Liverpool vs Hoffenheim – LOSE $40
  • Under 2.5 @ 0.92 on CSKA vs Young Boys – WIN $10
  • Over 3 @ 0.96 on Athletic Bilbao vs Panathinaikos – LOSE $17
  • Watford (-0.5) on Watford vs BHA – LOSE $32
  • Over 2.5 @ 0.99 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $12
  • Over 2.75 @ -0.91 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $25
  • Over 3 @ 0.89 on Liverpool vs Arsenal – WIN $56.95
  • Mix Parlay – LOSE $2
  • Over 2.75 @ 0.95 on Fiorentina vs Sampdoria – WIN $14.25
  • Over 3 @ 0.91 on Monaco vs Marseille – WIN $18.20
  • Over 4 @ 0.90 on Real Madrid vs Valencia – DRAW

Some quick thoughts/gripes about this weeks action:

  • Was thinking of betting on Over 3 for the Hoffenheim game, but ended up taking Hoffenheim instead cost me there. Should always prioritise Over/Under bets when possible as I seem to do poorly on handicap bets.
  • Betting on the Bilbao game was impulsive, and lead to an unnecessary loss.
  • Got real unlucky on the Watford game because Britos got himself stupidly sent off and Watford couldn’t book an easy home win.
  • Can’t believe how I did not clear 2.5 and 2.75 goals in the Chelsea game after they took at 2-0 lead into half-time.

Hopefully I can turn this around soon!

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (40/81) / 49.4%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$277.46