2017 Week 37 Roundup – La Liga, UCL, J-League, BPL, & Serie A

With the UCL and regular European games back in full swing for week 37, I was looking for a good week to rebound and build on my gains from week 36.

All in all, I am up $75.94 this week, and hopefully this will continue on!

Some quick thoughts on how this week panned out:

  • Though I keep telling myself to not make rash decisions, I still ended up taking small, but ultimately failed punts on a few games without proper research. Hopefully I’ll be able to reign in the degenerate in me and cut out these silly bets.
  • Was furious that I could not get over 2.75 goals in the Leipzig vs Monaco game in the UCL. Will make a mental note to be less trigger happy with over bets on RB Leipzig as they seem quite solid defensively.
  • Spurs v Swansea and Chelsea v Arsenal ended 0-0, which I got completely wrong as I bet over 3 on both. UCL and UEL hangover maybe? Good point to consider when betting on these teams after midweek games.
  • I have a 100& record in Serie A bets this season, which seems to be making a mockery of their defensive reputation by the fact that most of games cross the over lines. Hopefully this will continue, and I will focus and place larger bets on Serie A instead of the much more popular BPL

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As usual, I will leave Mix Parlays out of my prediction count as they’re long shots more than anything.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (50/101) / 49.5%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$169.62

2017 Week 34 – BPL, UCL, UEL, Serie A, Ligue 1, & La Liga

After last week’s losing week, things got worse this week as I booked a loss of $44.45.

Hopefully things will turn around but the international break in week 35 means I’ll probably have to wait awhile before any opportunities present themselves.

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  • Over 2.75 @ 0.84 on Man City vs Everton – LOSE $23
  • Hoffenheim (+1) on Liverpool vs Hoffenheim – LOSE $40
  • Under 2.5 @ 0.92 on CSKA vs Young Boys – WIN $10
  • Over 3 @ 0.96 on Athletic Bilbao vs Panathinaikos – LOSE $17
  • Watford (-0.5) on Watford vs BHA – LOSE $32
  • Over 2.5 @ 0.99 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $12
  • Over 2.75 @ -0.91 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $25
  • Over 3 @ 0.89 on Liverpool vs Arsenal – WIN $56.95
  • Mix Parlay – LOSE $2
  • Over 2.75 @ 0.95 on Fiorentina vs Sampdoria – WIN $14.25
  • Over 3 @ 0.91 on Monaco vs Marseille – WIN $18.20
  • Over 4 @ 0.90 on Real Madrid vs Valencia – DRAW

Some quick thoughts/gripes about this weeks action:

  • Was thinking of betting on Over 3 for the Hoffenheim game, but ended up taking Hoffenheim instead cost me there. Should always prioritise Over/Under bets when possible as I seem to do poorly on handicap bets.
  • Betting on the Bilbao game was impulsive, and lead to an unnecessary loss.
  • Got real unlucky on the Watford game because Britos got himself stupidly sent off and Watford couldn’t book an easy home win.
  • Can’t believe how I did not clear 2.5 and 2.75 goals in the Chelsea game after they took at 2-0 lead into half-time.

Hopefully I can turn this around soon!

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (40/81) / 49.4%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$277.46

2017 Week 33 – UCL, Super Cup, J League, BPL, & La Liga

Since the European season has begun, I’ve decided to post in a different format.

I will now summarise my bets by the week they were placed so I don’t end up with too many posts.

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  • Over 2.5 on Hoffenheim vs Liverpool – WIN $25.80
  • Draw @ 3.70 on Real Madrid vs Barcelona – LOSE $10
  • Over 2.75 on Urawa Red Diamonds vs FC Tokyo – WIN $12.75
  • Over 2.75 on Kashima Antlers vs Shimizu S Pulse – LOSE $23.60
  • Over 3 on Liverpool vs Crystal Palace – LOSE $55.80
  • Arsenal to win @ 1.85 – LOSE $30
  • Over 2.5 on Tottenham vs Chelsea – WIN $32.76
  • Real Madrid (-1.75) on Deportivo vs Real Madrid – WIN $15

Overall, I am down $33.90 for the week, so hopefully I can turn it around next week.

Some thoughts on this week:

  • The game which I thought was a banker ended up costing me the most as Liverpool and Palace played out a drab 1-0 game.
  • I’m not doing too well in the J League, so maybe it’s time to just focus on European football and only bet on Urawa when they’re playing other high scoring teams
  • After getting angry at losing the Liverpool game, I ended up throwing bad money after good by punting on Arsenal when I should have known better since they were playing Stoke away.
  • It could be time to start on betting on PSG, especially when they’re playing at home. They just seem to be scoring for fun, thrashing Toulouse 6-2 even with 10 men.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (36/71) / 50.8%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$233.01

Real Madrid vs Juventus UCL Final Betting Tips UPDATE

What a night! What a result!

Real Madrid beat Juventus 4-1 in the final to be the first team to retain the UEFA Champions League!!!

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A great night for Real, and a great night for me as well.

Summary of the night’s action:

$50 on Real Madrid to win @ 2.58 – WIN $79

$2 on 4-1 to Real Madrid @ 82.00 – WIN $162

$3 on 3-1 to Real Madrid @ 24.00 – LOSE $3

$5 on Real Madrid to win the Champions League @ 5.20 – WIN $21

Up $259 on the night, but I’ll only count the $50 on Real Madrid to win @ 2.58 bet in the correct prediction count as the rest are speculative punts.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (12/22) / 54.5%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $331.36

Real Madrid vs Juventus UCL Final Betting Tips

Finally, we reach the end of the season. The game of all games, the UEFA Champions League Final.

Real Madrid vs Juventus is shaping up to be a classic, and I for one, cannot wait for Real to be the first team to defend the UCL title and create history.

As a diehard Real Madrid fan, I am obliged to place a support bet on my team.

Initially, I was torn between taking Real @ 0.86 at level ball, or Real to win in 90 minutes @ 2.58.

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In the end, I decided to go for the bigger payout, and bet $50 on Real Madrid to win @ 2.58 since we’re going to win it anyway.

Bankroll management has gone out the window when making bets based on emotion, so I’ve also gone with a few long shots. However, these bets won’t be counting toward my overall win rate percentage:

$2 on 4-1 to Real Madrid @ 82.00 and $3 on 3-1 to Real Madrid @ 24.00

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Along with a $5 bet I placed quite a while ago for Real Madrid to win the Champions League @ 5.20 , I have $60 in total riding on tonights game.

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Fingers crossed, and good luck to us.

HALA MADRID! Y NADA MAS Y NADA MAS, HALA MADRID!

Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid (UCL Semi Final 2nd Leg) & Southampton vs Arsenal (BPL)

Being a Real Madrid fan, all logic goes out the window when it comes to me betting on their matches.

I’ve gone for a small bet on Real at level ball for a few reasons:

  1. They’re the best club. Ever
  2. They’ve scored in 60 consecutive matches, and won 3-0 at the Calderon earlier this season
  3. It’s a support bet. Obviously

 

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Next game today is the Southampton v Arsenal match up in the BPL. This is a midweek game after Arsenal beat Manchester United 2-0, and Southampton drew 0-0 with Liverpool.

For this game, really not sure if I could go with Arsenal giving up 0.5 ball, so I’ve gone for betting on Under 3 goals even with a pretty shitty payout of 0.75. Reasons being:

  1. Southampton have been pretty solid defensively, and Arsenal just haven’t been firing on all cylinders. However, we are used to seeing end of season pushes from Arsenal for that lucrative 4th spot
  2. I foresee 3 goals at max in this game, so even if that happens, we won’t be losing out on any money.

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Hopefully this turns out well, and I’ve won myself a free lunch for next week!

Update:

  1. Atleti 2 – 1 Real : Lost money here. Guess it’s true that no one ever wins money betting on their team. Looking back, the wiser bet was probably over 2.75 goals
  2. Southampton 0 – 2 Arsenal : Good news, won some on this bet to make up a little of what I lost on the other game.

Count : 1/2

A loss of $13 tonight, lets try to win it back this weekend!