With the UCL and regular European games back in full swing for week 37, I was looking for a good week to rebound and build on my gains from week 36.
All in all, I am up $75.94 this week, and hopefully this will continue on!
Some quick thoughts on how this week panned out:
- Though I keep telling myself to not make rash decisions, I still ended up taking small, but ultimately failed punts on a few games without proper research. Hopefully I’ll be able to reign in the degenerate in me and cut out these silly bets.
- Was furious that I could not get over 2.75 goals in the Leipzig vs Monaco game in the UCL. Will make a mental note to be less trigger happy with over bets on RB Leipzig as they seem quite solid defensively.
- Spurs v Swansea and Chelsea v Arsenal ended 0-0, which I got completely wrong as I bet over 3 on both. UCL and UEL hangover maybe? Good point to consider when betting on these teams after midweek games.
- I have a 100& record in Serie A bets this season, which seems to be making a mockery of their defensive reputation by the fact that most of games cross the over lines. Hopefully this will continue, and I will focus and place larger bets on Serie A instead of the much more popular BPL
As usual, I will leave Mix Parlays out of my prediction count as they’re long shots more than anything.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (50/101) / 49.5%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$169.62
Due to the break for the World Cup Qualifiers, there wasn’t much action in week 35, which is why I’ve condensed Week 35 and 36 into the same post.
During week 35, I told myself to stay away from international games as they usually don’t bode too well, and it’s really hard to gauge the form of nations due to the small sample size and the fact that the players don’t play with each other frequently.
However, I wasn’t able to stay away, and ended up taking Malaysia (as it is my patriotic duty) in the final of the SEA Games against Thailand, and betting Under 2.5 on Hungary vs Latvia as I figured it’d be a low scoring affair.
Sadly, my home nation lost on home soil to Thailand, and the Hungarians and Latvians indulged in a goal fest to put me deep in the red for week 35.
Thankfully, things turned around during week 36, though I regret foolishly betting on the long odds of Liverpool beating City at the Etihad. Thankfully the fact that it rained goals over the weekend meant I got all my Over bets right!
- Malaysia (+0.25) in Malaysia vs Thailand – LOSE $18
- Under 2.5 on Hungary vs Latvia – LOSE $32
- Over 3 on Man City vs Liverpool – WIN $43.50
- Liverpool to win – LOSE $36
- Over 2.5 on Leicester vs Chelsea – WIN $44.50
- Over 2.5 on Juventus vs Chievo – WIN $25
- Swansea (-0.25) in Swansea vs Newcastle – LOSE $8.80
- Over 2.75 on Bologna vs Napoli – WIN $ 13.70
Overall, I am up $31.90 for these 2 weeks. It’s a small amount, but every small step is a step toward rebuilding my roll!
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (44/89) / 49.4%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$245.56
After last week’s losing week, things got worse this week as I booked a loss of $44.45.
Hopefully things will turn around but the international break in week 35 means I’ll probably have to wait awhile before any opportunities present themselves.
- Over 2.75 @ 0.84 on Man City vs Everton – LOSE $23
- Hoffenheim (+1) on Liverpool vs Hoffenheim – LOSE $40
- Under 2.5 @ 0.92 on CSKA vs Young Boys – WIN $10
- Over 3 @ 0.96 on Athletic Bilbao vs Panathinaikos – LOSE $17
- Watford (-0.5) on Watford vs BHA – LOSE $32
- Over 2.5 @ 0.99 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $12
- Over 2.75 @ -0.91 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $25
- Over 3 @ 0.89 on Liverpool vs Arsenal – WIN $56.95
- Mix Parlay – LOSE $2
- Over 2.75 @ 0.95 on Fiorentina vs Sampdoria – WIN $14.25
- Over 3 @ 0.91 on Monaco vs Marseille – WIN $18.20
- Over 4 @ 0.90 on Real Madrid vs Valencia – DRAW
Some quick thoughts/gripes about this weeks action:
- Was thinking of betting on Over 3 for the Hoffenheim game, but ended up taking Hoffenheim instead cost me there. Should always prioritise Over/Under bets when possible as I seem to do poorly on handicap bets.
- Betting on the Bilbao game was impulsive, and lead to an unnecessary loss.
- Got real unlucky on the Watford game because Britos got himself stupidly sent off and Watford couldn’t book an easy home win.
- Can’t believe how I did not clear 2.5 and 2.75 goals in the Chelsea game after they took at 2-0 lead into half-time.
Hopefully I can turn this around soon!
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (40/81) / 49.4%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$277.46
With Crotone beating Lazio last night to stay in Serie A, I finally turned a profit tonight after 4 consecutive days to snap that terrible losing streak. Sadly, the fact that Napoli played out a goal-fest with Sampdoria meant I couldn’t go 2 for 2.
Though I got 1 wrong and 1 right, the larger payout on the Crotone game meant I was up a little.
Here are the results
- Crotone vs Lazio
– $24 on Crotone to win @ 2.51 – WON 36.20
- Sampdoria vs Napoli
– $26 on Under 4 goals @ 0.84 – LOST 26
All in all, I’m up $10.20 on the night.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (11/21) / 52.4%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $72.36
As it’s the last week of action in Serie A, I felt like I could not turn down the chance for a last flutter before the UCL final, even though I told myself I’d wait for the Madrid v Juve game.
After taking a look at the games tonight, I was tempted to go with Roma as they’re at home against Genoa who have been terrible recently, but felt that a 3 goal handicap was just a tad too high. The Over 4.25 Goals line seem a bit far fetched as well.
As such, I’ve gone with:
- Crotone vs Lazio
– $24 on Crotone to win @ 2.51
– Lazio’s form has fallen off a cliff recently after having nothing to play for in the league and losing the cup final. Crotone will be gunning for a win to overtake Empoli and stay in Serie A, so they will be fighting hard, and I think the payout for a win is pretty good.
- Sampdoria vs Napoli
– $26 on Under 4 goals @ 0.84
– Napoli have to win to maintain their hopes of qualifying for the UCL group stages immediately next season. However, Sampdoria don’t tend to score too many goals, and Napoli’s defence is pretty solid. All in all, I predict a low scoring Napoli win. Maybe 2-0 or 2-1 to Napoli? Basically, enough to place my faith in under 4!
With my bad streak over the last week stretching to losing the last 4 games with a combined loss of $137, I really hope these 2 games will help me snap out of it before the UCL final, and put me back deeper in the black.
Fingers crossed and good luck to me!
As this is the final week of the season in Europe’s top leagues, I decided to have a flutter of $6 on Mix Parlay. Essentially this is my way of predicting many games, and putting my money (only a little) where my mouth is!
Naturally, I won’t be factoring these predictions in when calculating my win rate as it really is a 10,000 to 1 shot here. This is what I’ve gone for:
Fingers crossed I get them all right, and it’s 60 grand in the bank!
So how did I do this Saturday? Here’s a summary of my predictions below, the results, and the only game I actually had the stones to put money on.
- Man City look certain to beat Leicester, but the 2 goal handicap concerns me. Can they win by 3 clear goals? Also, the Over/Under 3.5 line seems a little risky to bet on
City 2 – 1 Leicester
Good thing I stayed out of this as it JUST ended under 3.5, and City could not clear the 2 goal handicap
- Swansea will be fighting for survival, knowing a win could all but guarantee safety. However, they are away, and Sunderland seem to play better after getting relegated. A handicap of 0.5 seems like a good opportunity if you’re inclined
Sunderland 0 – 2 Swansea
Still kicking myself for not pulling the trigger with a wager on Swansea. They ended up winning convincingly.
- Arsenal have a terrible away record to Stoke, but will be fighting hard for their traditional 4th spot. I’m not too confident about the 0.75 handicap, but maybe a flutter on under 3 might be more profitable.
Stoke 1 – 4 Arsenal
Got the prediction horribly wrong as Arsenal ran riot at Stoke. Guess all bad runs come to an end eventually. Good thing I stayed well clear
- A quick peek at the last 5 meetings between the two teams indicate a high possibility of goals. Coupled with the last 5 matches these 2 teams have played, which have also included high scoring matches like Fiorentina 5 – 4 Inter, and Lazio 7 – 3 Sampdoria.
Fiorentina 3 – 2 Lazio
My bet of $85 on Over 3.25 @ 0.82 on Fiorentina vs Lazio ended up in profit of $69! This sure was a nervy one as it was 0 – 0 at half time, and I was sorely tempted to sell my action and cut my losses.
Thankfully, I held on and it simply rained goals in the 2nd half.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : 3/5
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $60