2017 Week 44/45 Roundup – Serie A, UCL, UEL, La Liga, BPL

With the international break in week 45, I decided to skip the week altogether instead.

As for week 44, I ended up a grand $0.70, with a 5/11 win rate.

Compared to the previous weeks, it’s a pretty poor return, but I guess with the variance of sports betting, it’s still better than losing!

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Some quick thoughts on week 44:

  1. Had an absolutely shocking start to the week with losses in 3/4 UCL games. Thankfully my big punt on Over 3.25 goals in the Napoli v Man City game came good this time around which helped.
  2. A lucky punt with a good payout on a draw between AEK and Milan actually meant I was up a little going into the weekend.
  3. A completely wrong bet by taking Betis instead of betting on Over 2.5 resulted in a big loss there, but thankfully sharpshooting Valencia and Liverpool bailed me out.
  4. Thanks to Manchester City, I managed to end the week squeaking in a $0.70 profit as they rained in the goals against Arsenal

Hopefully I’ll be able to do better in week 46 when club football resumes!

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (83/164) / 50.6%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $271.32

2017 Week 43 Roundup – Serie A, BPL, La Liga, Mix Parlay

After a stellar week 42, I didn’t manage to replicate it this week by only being up $81.65 with 4/8 for the week. Hopefully I’ll be able to improve on that in week 44 with a round of midweek UCL games and the weekends games.

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Some quick thoughts for the week:

  1. The week started off badly with the Inter game raining goals when I made an Under bet against the statistical data, but thankfully I managed to rebound with 2 quick wins in a row betting on my perennial Over favourite Lazio, and in-form Fiorentina.
  2. Another team with no problem scoring goals seem to be Valencia, and it could be prudent to pay attention to their upcoming games for betting opportunities.
  3. The week turned sour with both my BPL bets being WAY off, which resulted in me compounding it by angrily betting Over on the Juventus game which resulted in 3 losses on the trot, which leads me on to…
  4. Lazio! They saved me again as they were 3-0 up by half time, and ended up smashing poor Benevento to give me a decent winning margin for the week.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (78/153) / 51%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $270.62

2017 Week 42 Roundup – UCL, La Liga, Serie A, BPL, & Mix Parlay

After a decent week 41, I managed to improve upon that by being up $116.22 and 5/9  for this week.

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Some quick thoughts on the weeks action:

  1. I still cannot believe I lost on the Manchester City game. The bet should have been over and won with by half time if it wasn’t for a combination of penalty misses, posts, and off the line clearances. The ultimate banker of the week ended up with a loss. Funny thing football.
  2. Losing on the Real Betis game surprised me as well. Betis have been in such fine goalscoring form I expected them to blow Alaves away, especially without midweek action to tire them out.
  3. I placed a small punt on the Arsenal game when the score was 1-3 after my girlfriend asked me too, and then promptly sold it 10 minutes later after she asked me too again. Guess she was right the first time around as the game finished 2-5!!!
  4. I should have bet more on the Juventus game, but I was reluctant to fire a big bet on the last game of the week as I wanted to book a win. So far I seem to be doing better with Serie A this season compared to the other leagues, so maybe I should switch more focus onto the Italians!
  5. It might be prudent to start the week betting smaller and progressing as the week goes by. I realise if I lose big at the start, I tend to bet bigger on the subsequent games to recover quickly. Though this has worked out so far, my luck will run out eventually and I’ll be in a deep hole again.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (74/145) / 51%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $188.97

2017 Week 41 Roundup – World Cup Qualifiers, Ligue 1, La Liga, Serie A, & Mix Parlays

After a slow burner last time around, I am up $76.60 this week, with 5/7 in the green.

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 11.49.53 PM.pngA few quick remarks on the the weeks action:

  1. Placed a bet in the 9th or 10th minute on the Lyon v Monaco game, and they scored within a minute or two which was really fortunate on my part.
  2. Support bets on Real Madrid this season don’t seem to be working out just yet, so I’ll be scaling back on them, or betting much less. Ronaldo missed an open goal, and Getafe’s goal looked suspiciously offside, but the ball is round I guess.
  3. Roma vs Napoli was a real disappointment as I was expecting a barrage of goals involving both these teams, and was the pick I had the most confidence in this week. Funny game, football.
  4. Got really lucky on the Paris game as I placed an over bet at half time when it was still 0-0, and a late Dijon equaliser and an even later PSG winner meant I picked up a full win!
  5. Mauro Icardi, what a player. He completed his hattrick with a last minute penalty, which also sealed my biggest win of the week as Inter beat AC Milan 3-2 in the Milan derby.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (69/136) / 50.7%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $72.75

2017 Week 39 Roundup – UCL, UEL, BPL, Serie A, Mix Parlay

After a decent haul in week 38, I managed to improve upon it and I’m up $105.13 for the week, with 6/12 correct predictions.

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Some quick thoughts on this week where selling my action before the game was over would be a big theme:

  1. I would be up a lot more, and be 7/12 for the week if I had not sold my action on the Monaco v Porto game when the score was 0-2. Sadly, my lack of guts cost me this time, and an 89th minute goal meant I lost $43 instead of winning $35. A solid $78 swing right there.
  2. The experience above meant I also lost in the Benevento v Inter game as I was too scared to sell my action when the score was 1-2, and was praying for a third Inter goal that never came.
  3. Luckily, I sold my action on the Chelsea v Man City game and did not suffer dire consequences as the game never came close to reaching the over 2.75 line, and I managed to cut my losses.
  4. I still think I’m betting on too many games, instead of betting larger on less games. I will be trying to rein in the temptation to bet on so many games in the coming weeks.
  5. I finally got a Mix Parlay right! Though I didn’t manage to win all the bets, I still managed to turn $2 into $93.85! I’ve included my first successful mix parlay win below:

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As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (62/124) / 50%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$14.13

2017 Week 38 Roundup – Serie A, La Liga, BPL, Ligue 1, & Bundelisga

After a good week 37, I was hoping to keep up the good run with the major European leagues having midweek games.

All in all, I was up $60.36 for the week, and back on the road to build a healthy bankroll!

Some thoughts on the week:

  1. Nothing wrong with putting a big part of my roll on bankers like over 3 between Lazio v Napoli. Just wished I had the guts to bet more. Unfortunately, the bookies have caught on and the over lines for Napoli games are now getting ridiculous.
  2. PSG really need Neymar. They drew 0-0 with Montpellier without him!
  3. Do more research before punting: losses on the Villarreal and Leverkusen games could have been avoided with a bit more research.

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As usual, I won’t be counting mix parlays toward my prediction count.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (56/112) / 50%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$119.26

2017 Week 37 Roundup – La Liga, UCL, J-League, BPL, & Serie A

With the UCL and regular European games back in full swing for week 37, I was looking for a good week to rebound and build on my gains from week 36.

All in all, I am up $75.94 this week, and hopefully this will continue on!

Some quick thoughts on how this week panned out:

  • Though I keep telling myself to not make rash decisions, I still ended up taking small, but ultimately failed punts on a few games without proper research. Hopefully I’ll be able to reign in the degenerate in me and cut out these silly bets.
  • Was furious that I could not get over 2.75 goals in the Leipzig vs Monaco game in the UCL. Will make a mental note to be less trigger happy with over bets on RB Leipzig as they seem quite solid defensively.
  • Spurs v Swansea and Chelsea v Arsenal ended 0-0, which I got completely wrong as I bet over 3 on both. UCL and UEL hangover maybe? Good point to consider when betting on these teams after midweek games.
  • I have a 100& record in Serie A bets this season, which seems to be making a mockery of their defensive reputation by the fact that most of games cross the over lines. Hopefully this will continue, and I will focus and place larger bets on Serie A instead of the much more popular BPL

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As usual, I will leave Mix Parlays out of my prediction count as they’re long shots more than anything.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (50/101) / 49.5%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$169.62