After a slow burner last time around, I am up $76.60 this week, with 5/7 in the green.
A few quick remarks on the the weeks action:
- Placed a bet in the 9th or 10th minute on the Lyon v Monaco game, and they scored within a minute or two which was really fortunate on my part.
- Support bets on Real Madrid this season don’t seem to be working out just yet, so I’ll be scaling back on them, or betting much less. Ronaldo missed an open goal, and Getafe’s goal looked suspiciously offside, but the ball is round I guess.
- Roma vs Napoli was a real disappointment as I was expecting a barrage of goals involving both these teams, and was the pick I had the most confidence in this week. Funny game, football.
- Got really lucky on the Paris game as I placed an over bet at half time when it was still 0-0, and a late Dijon equaliser and an even later PSG winner meant I picked up a full win!
- Mauro Icardi, what a player. He completed his hattrick with a last minute penalty, which also sealed my biggest win of the week as Inter beat AC Milan 3-2 in the Milan derby.
As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (69/136) / 50.7%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $72.75
After a good week 37, I was hoping to keep up the good run with the major European leagues having midweek games.
All in all, I was up $60.36 for the week, and back on the road to build a healthy bankroll!
Some thoughts on the week:
- Nothing wrong with putting a big part of my roll on bankers like over 3 between Lazio v Napoli. Just wished I had the guts to bet more. Unfortunately, the bookies have caught on and the over lines for Napoli games are now getting ridiculous.
- PSG really need Neymar. They drew 0-0 with Montpellier without him!
- Do more research before punting: losses on the Villarreal and Leverkusen games could have been avoided with a bit more research.
As usual, I won’t be counting mix parlays toward my prediction count.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (56/112) / 50%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$119.26
After last week’s losing week, things got worse this week as I booked a loss of $44.45.
Hopefully things will turn around but the international break in week 35 means I’ll probably have to wait awhile before any opportunities present themselves.
- Over 2.75 @ 0.84 on Man City vs Everton – LOSE $23
- Hoffenheim (+1) on Liverpool vs Hoffenheim – LOSE $40
- Under 2.5 @ 0.92 on CSKA vs Young Boys – WIN $10
- Over 3 @ 0.96 on Athletic Bilbao vs Panathinaikos – LOSE $17
- Watford (-0.5) on Watford vs BHA – LOSE $32
- Over 2.5 @ 0.99 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $12
- Over 2.75 @ -0.91 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $25
- Over 3 @ 0.89 on Liverpool vs Arsenal – WIN $56.95
- Mix Parlay – LOSE $2
- Over 2.75 @ 0.95 on Fiorentina vs Sampdoria – WIN $14.25
- Over 3 @ 0.91 on Monaco vs Marseille – WIN $18.20
- Over 4 @ 0.90 on Real Madrid vs Valencia – DRAW
Some quick thoughts/gripes about this weeks action:
- Was thinking of betting on Over 3 for the Hoffenheim game, but ended up taking Hoffenheim instead cost me there. Should always prioritise Over/Under bets when possible as I seem to do poorly on handicap bets.
- Betting on the Bilbao game was impulsive, and lead to an unnecessary loss.
- Got real unlucky on the Watford game because Britos got himself stupidly sent off and Watford couldn’t book an easy home win.
- Can’t believe how I did not clear 2.5 and 2.75 goals in the Chelsea game after they took at 2-0 lead into half-time.
Hopefully I can turn this around soon!
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (40/81) / 49.4%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$277.46
After a profitable Saturday, the action continued on Sunday, where there was some bad decisions, bad luck, good luck, and great news for me.
The night started off with me taking Guangzhou Evergrande with a 1.5 goal handicap against Henan Jianye. Guangzhou took a 2-0 lead in the 86th minute, and I thought it was money in the bag until a meaningless 94th minute goal for Henan meant I couldn’t clear the handicap, and lost that one.
Soon after, I bet on Over 2.75 goals on the Manchester United vs West Ham game, which was a little bit of a slow burner. As the clock ticked down with United leading 2-0 and looking as though they weren’t going for more, I seriously considered selling my action to cut my losses. Thankfully I didn’t pull the trigger as 2 more goals in the last 5 minutes meant I won the full bet!
Right before heading to bed, I decided to place a speculative bet on Guingamp (+1.75) in their match vs PSG. Waking up to a 3-0 win for PSG meant that was money down the drain. This is a lesson to not place a bet just for the sake of betting
Finally, I also took Real Madrid (+0.5) in the Spanish Super cup against Barca. This was nothing more than a support bet, but it paid off big time after Ronaldo and Asensio absolutely destroyed Barcelona in the Camp Nou.
- Guangzhou (-1.5) vs Henan – LOSE $25
- Over 2.75 on Manchester United vs West Ham – WIN $22.25
- Guingamp (+1.75) vs PSG – LOSE $19.80
- Barcelona vs Real Madrid (+0.5) – WIN $40.02
All in all, I am up $17.47 on the night. Not a huge amount, but every small step counts towards the fight back.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (32/63) / 50.8%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$199.11
A terrible weekend all round, with all my predictions wrong, which resulted in more rash decisions and terrible money management.
Am down $603.10 for the week, and left with only 20% of the bankroll I started the weekend with.
Below is a list of my losses:
- Over 2.75 on Kawasaki Frontale vs FC Tokyo – LOSE $42.70
- Jubilo to Win on Jubilo vs Hiroshima – LOSE $65
- Over 2.5 on Guizhou vs Chongqing – LOSE $44.40
- Over 3 on Shanghai Shenhua vs Changchun Yatai – LOSE $59
- OGC Nice (+0.25) . on ASSE vs OGC Nice – LOSE $52
- Over 3 on Shanghai SIPG vs Tianjian Quanjian – LOSE $350
It’s a terrible way to end the weekend, so hopefully I’ll be able to bounce back with the upcoming Super Cup and a big support bet on my team.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (25/54) / 46.3%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$337.98
As this is the final week of the season in Europe’s top leagues, I decided to have a flutter of $6 on Mix Parlay. Essentially this is my way of predicting many games, and putting my money (only a little) where my mouth is!
Naturally, I won’t be factoring these predictions in when calculating my win rate as it really is a 10,000 to 1 shot here. This is what I’ve gone for:
Fingers crossed I get them all right, and it’s 60 grand in the bank!
Update! Ended up winning $14 on the night even after a shitty start thanks to United scoring a meaningless consolation. Summary below:
- $45 on Under 2.5 @ 0.95 on the Spurs v Manu match (Final score Spurs 2 – 1 Manu) An early goal by Spurs in both halves led this bet down a dark road, and my unwillingness to sell my action and cut my losses resulted in a $45 hit. Fuck
- $23 on Real Madrid -2 vs Sevilla @ 0.86 (Final score Real 4 – 1 Sevilla) Great win for Real as we march on to the title. Pity Barca won too. Ugh
- $45 on Over 3 @ 0.88 for the ASSE v PSG game. (Final score ASSE 0 -5 PSG). Barnstorming win from PSG helped me with recouping some of what I lost on that stupid Rooney goal.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (5/8)
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $74