2017 Week 44/45 Roundup – Serie A, UCL, UEL, La Liga, BPL

With the international break in week 45, I decided to skip the week altogether instead.

As for week 44, I ended up a grand $0.70, with a 5/11 win rate.

Compared to the previous weeks, it’s a pretty poor return, but I guess with the variance of sports betting, it’s still better than losing!

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Some quick thoughts on week 44:

  1. Had an absolutely shocking start to the week with losses in 3/4 UCL games. Thankfully my big punt on Over 3.25 goals in the Napoli v Man City game came good this time around which helped.
  2. A lucky punt with a good payout on a draw between AEK and Milan actually meant I was up a little going into the weekend.
  3. A completely wrong bet by taking Betis instead of betting on Over 2.5 resulted in a big loss there, but thankfully sharpshooting Valencia and Liverpool bailed me out.
  4. Thanks to Manchester City, I managed to end the week squeaking in a $0.70 profit as they rained in the goals against Arsenal

Hopefully I’ll be able to do better in week 46 when club football resumes!

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (83/164) / 50.6%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $271.32

2017 Week 43 Roundup – Serie A, BPL, La Liga, Mix Parlay

After a stellar week 42, I didn’t manage to replicate it this week by only being up $81.65 with 4/8 for the week. Hopefully I’ll be able to improve on that in week 44 with a round of midweek UCL games and the weekends games.

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Some quick thoughts for the week:

  1. The week started off badly with the Inter game raining goals when I made an Under bet against the statistical data, but thankfully I managed to rebound with 2 quick wins in a row betting on my perennial Over favourite Lazio, and in-form Fiorentina.
  2. Another team with no problem scoring goals seem to be Valencia, and it could be prudent to pay attention to their upcoming games for betting opportunities.
  3. The week turned sour with both my BPL bets being WAY off, which resulted in me compounding it by angrily betting Over on the Juventus game which resulted in 3 losses on the trot, which leads me on to…
  4. Lazio! They saved me again as they were 3-0 up by half time, and ended up smashing poor Benevento to give me a decent winning margin for the week.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (78/153) / 51%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $270.62

2017 Week 42 Roundup – UCL, La Liga, Serie A, BPL, & Mix Parlay

After a decent week 41, I managed to improve upon that by being up $116.22 and 5/9  for this week.

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Some quick thoughts on the weeks action:

  1. I still cannot believe I lost on the Manchester City game. The bet should have been over and won with by half time if it wasn’t for a combination of penalty misses, posts, and off the line clearances. The ultimate banker of the week ended up with a loss. Funny thing football.
  2. Losing on the Real Betis game surprised me as well. Betis have been in such fine goalscoring form I expected them to blow Alaves away, especially without midweek action to tire them out.
  3. I placed a small punt on the Arsenal game when the score was 1-3 after my girlfriend asked me too, and then promptly sold it 10 minutes later after she asked me too again. Guess she was right the first time around as the game finished 2-5!!!
  4. I should have bet more on the Juventus game, but I was reluctant to fire a big bet on the last game of the week as I wanted to book a win. So far I seem to be doing better with Serie A this season compared to the other leagues, so maybe I should switch more focus onto the Italians!
  5. It might be prudent to start the week betting smaller and progressing as the week goes by. I realise if I lose big at the start, I tend to bet bigger on the subsequent games to recover quickly. Though this has worked out so far, my luck will run out eventually and I’ll be in a deep hole again.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (74/145) / 51%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $188.97

2017 Week 41 Roundup – World Cup Qualifiers, Ligue 1, La Liga, Serie A, & Mix Parlays

After a slow burner last time around, I am up $76.60 this week, with 5/7 in the green.

Screen Shot 2017-10-18 at 11.49.53 PM.pngA few quick remarks on the the weeks action:

  1. Placed a bet in the 9th or 10th minute on the Lyon v Monaco game, and they scored within a minute or two which was really fortunate on my part.
  2. Support bets on Real Madrid this season don’t seem to be working out just yet, so I’ll be scaling back on them, or betting much less. Ronaldo missed an open goal, and Getafe’s goal looked suspiciously offside, but the ball is round I guess.
  3. Roma vs Napoli was a real disappointment as I was expecting a barrage of goals involving both these teams, and was the pick I had the most confidence in this week. Funny game, football.
  4. Got really lucky on the Paris game as I placed an over bet at half time when it was still 0-0, and a late Dijon equaliser and an even later PSG winner meant I picked up a full win!
  5. Mauro Icardi, what a player. He completed his hattrick with a last minute penalty, which also sealed my biggest win of the week as Inter beat AC Milan 3-2 in the Milan derby.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (69/136) / 50.7%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $72.75

2017 Week 38 Roundup – Serie A, La Liga, BPL, Ligue 1, & Bundelisga

After a good week 37, I was hoping to keep up the good run with the major European leagues having midweek games.

All in all, I was up $60.36 for the week, and back on the road to build a healthy bankroll!

Some thoughts on the week:

  1. Nothing wrong with putting a big part of my roll on bankers like over 3 between Lazio v Napoli. Just wished I had the guts to bet more. Unfortunately, the bookies have caught on and the over lines for Napoli games are now getting ridiculous.
  2. PSG really need Neymar. They drew 0-0 with Montpellier without him!
  3. Do more research before punting: losses on the Villarreal and Leverkusen games could have been avoided with a bit more research.

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As usual, I won’t be counting mix parlays toward my prediction count.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (56/112) / 50%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$119.26

2017 Week 34 – BPL, UCL, UEL, Serie A, Ligue 1, & La Liga

After last week’s losing week, things got worse this week as I booked a loss of $44.45.

Hopefully things will turn around but the international break in week 35 means I’ll probably have to wait awhile before any opportunities present themselves.

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  • Over 2.75 @ 0.84 on Man City vs Everton – LOSE $23
  • Hoffenheim (+1) on Liverpool vs Hoffenheim – LOSE $40
  • Under 2.5 @ 0.92 on CSKA vs Young Boys – WIN $10
  • Over 3 @ 0.96 on Athletic Bilbao vs Panathinaikos – LOSE $17
  • Watford (-0.5) on Watford vs BHA – LOSE $32
  • Over 2.5 @ 0.99 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $12
  • Over 2.75 @ -0.91 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $25
  • Over 3 @ 0.89 on Liverpool vs Arsenal – WIN $56.95
  • Mix Parlay – LOSE $2
  • Over 2.75 @ 0.95 on Fiorentina vs Sampdoria – WIN $14.25
  • Over 3 @ 0.91 on Monaco vs Marseille – WIN $18.20
  • Over 4 @ 0.90 on Real Madrid vs Valencia – DRAW

Some quick thoughts/gripes about this weeks action:

  • Was thinking of betting on Over 3 for the Hoffenheim game, but ended up taking Hoffenheim instead cost me there. Should always prioritise Over/Under bets when possible as I seem to do poorly on handicap bets.
  • Betting on the Bilbao game was impulsive, and lead to an unnecessary loss.
  • Got real unlucky on the Watford game because Britos got himself stupidly sent off and Watford couldn’t book an easy home win.
  • Can’t believe how I did not clear 2.5 and 2.75 goals in the Chelsea game after they took at 2-0 lead into half-time.

Hopefully I can turn this around soon!

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (40/81) / 49.4%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$277.46

2017 Week 33 – UCL, Super Cup, J League, BPL, & La Liga

Since the European season has begun, I’ve decided to post in a different format.

I will now summarise my bets by the week they were placed so I don’t end up with too many posts.

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  • Over 2.5 on Hoffenheim vs Liverpool – WIN $25.80
  • Draw @ 3.70 on Real Madrid vs Barcelona – LOSE $10
  • Over 2.75 on Urawa Red Diamonds vs FC Tokyo – WIN $12.75
  • Over 2.75 on Kashima Antlers vs Shimizu S Pulse – LOSE $23.60
  • Over 3 on Liverpool vs Crystal Palace – LOSE $55.80
  • Arsenal to win @ 1.85 – LOSE $30
  • Over 2.5 on Tottenham vs Chelsea – WIN $32.76
  • Real Madrid (-1.75) on Deportivo vs Real Madrid – WIN $15

Overall, I am down $33.90 for the week, so hopefully I can turn it around next week.

Some thoughts on this week:

  • The game which I thought was a banker ended up costing me the most as Liverpool and Palace played out a drab 1-0 game.
  • I’m not doing too well in the J League, so maybe it’s time to just focus on European football and only bet on Urawa when they’re playing other high scoring teams
  • After getting angry at losing the Liverpool game, I ended up throwing bad money after good by punting on Arsenal when I should have known better since they were playing Stoke away.
  • It could be time to start on betting on PSG, especially when they’re playing at home. They just seem to be scoring for fun, thrashing Toulouse 6-2 even with 10 men.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (36/71) / 50.8%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$233.01