2018 Week 1 Roundup – BPL, TIM, Portuguese League, CDR, Serie A, La Liga

Welcome to 2018, and what a way to start the New Year!

It’s been a roller coaster first week, as I was down $609.99 at one stage, before a bold roll of the dice on a mix parlay helped me claw back the deficit, with a final dash of 3/3 bets going right to end the week up $69.02, with a paltry 4/11 predictions going right.

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The week started well when I made a speculative punt of over 1.5 goals in the 90th minute with Liverpool leading 1-0, with 2 late goals giving me a great start to the New Year.

However, what followed after was MUCH less fun as I reeled off loss after loss, each closer than the last:

  • Spurs missing numerous chances in a 2-0 win when 1 more goal would have won me half the bet
  • Same story as above in the Turin derby in the TIM cup
  • Benfica vs Sporting Lisbon ending 1-1 which meant I only lost half
  • The worst was probably the London derby between Arsenal and Chelsea, when a 93rd minute Bellerin equaliser meant I lost half the bet, with Zappacosta hitting the post a minute later to compound my misery of what could have been
  • Celta Vigo drew 1-1 with Barcelona in the Copa Del Rey, with the scores tied at half time, and the woodwork being hit more than once, along with more than 10 shots on target from both teams in total
  • Fiorentina vs Inter ended in a 1-1 stalemate to put me deep in the red, and desperate for a miracle

But when that miracle came, it came in glorious fashion!

I took a deep breath and punted $80 on a mix parlay, and somehow got all of it right (below), which pocketed me a win of $576.05 to narrow my losses.

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A misstep in Serie A aside (where I bet over 1.5 at half time in the Juventus game that ended 0-1), I reeled off 3 winning bets in La Liga in one night to seal a barely believable profit for the week, again telling myself not to get myself into such deep holes again.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (124/238) / 52.1%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $1276.06

2017 Week 51 Roundup – BPL, EFL, La Liga, Serie A

Though I didn’t do as well as last week, I am up $142.10 for the week, with 7/11 of my bets going right.

With the winter break coming up for most major European leagues, I’ll be left with only the BPL to bet on over the Christmas break. Hopefully my luck with this particular league will improve.

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The week started poorly with a loss on the Everton game, and threatened to get worse as I was heading for a big loss on the EFL game between Leicester and Man City.

Luckily, I rolled the dice with 2 bets:
– Over 1.75 goals with 15 minutes to go
– Over 1.5 goals with 5 minutes to go

Thankfully, a 97th minute penalty converted by Vardy meant I actually ended up winning on the previously doomed game.

My luck for these bets have to be running out soon, and I really hope I stop giving in to the urge to make these dangerous gambles when facing a big loss.

A support bet on Real ended up in a loss as Zidane got his tactics wrong, but fortunately my favourite league this season saved me again as I got 3/3 right in Serie A. If only I had the courage to bet more on the Italians!

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (113/217) / 52.07%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $1003.96

2017 Week 50 Roundup – Serie A, BPL, La Liga

After Pep’s City saved my bacon last week, I wanted to avoid having the butterflies two weeks in a row. All in all, I ended up $180.96 to the good with 5/9 games going my way.

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Some quick thoughts:

BPL games didn’t work out well for me this week as I lost 3/4 BPL bets I made. Ironically, the bet which I did the least research on ended up a banker as Huddersfield raced into a 0-3 lead before half time.

Crystal Palace in particular was a real pain as they defied their poor early season form to snatch victory in stoppage time vs Watford which cost me dearly, not to mention their barnstorming victory over a Leicester side which was heavily favoured to win.

I fared much better on Serie A games as I got 3/4 Serie A games right, coincidentally with all 3 being Over bets. Who said the Italians were defensive?

Also, I’m deeply grateful to Eibar for snatching a winner in the 87 minute to end the score at 2-1 after it was 0-0 at half time!

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (106/206) / 51.5%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $861.86

2017 Week 49 Roundup – UCL, Bundesliga, BPL, Serie A, La Liga

After last weeks lucky escape, I told myself to take a chill pill and take it slow. All in all, I ended up ahead by $41.96 with 3/7 games going my way.

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Some quick thoughts:

After starting the week on fire with 2 in a row, I managed to reel off 4 losses on the bounce to wipe out my early fortune.

A silly punt on Stuttgart without proper research coupled with some bad luck on the Chelsea and Juve games, along with Sadio Mane’s selfishness, meant I was down a lot heading into the final bet.

Thankfully, I made a last minute decision to bet Over on the Manchester derby even though I was considering betting Under all week as Jose would definitely park the bus. Luckily, 2 scrappy City goals and some shocking defending on Delph meant the score ended 2-1 and I managed to book a profit for the week.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (101/197) / 51.3%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $608.90

2017 Week 48 Roundup – BPL, Ligue 1, Serie A, La Liga

What a week this was! I was put through a rollercoaster of emotions which I hope I’ll never go through again, but thankfully Lady Luck shone on me in the end to book a profit of $54.69 for the week, with only 3/9 predictions coming true.

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So what happened?

I started the week badly by reeling off 4 losses in a row, which was compounded by a huge bet on Napoli v Juventus that went sour. Though I tell myself time and again to manage my bankroll soundly, logic always seems to go out the window once I book a few red ones, which is something I REALLY need to work on.

After I was down around $440, I made the fateful decision to bet $500 on Everton giving 0.75 goals in their match vs Huddersfield. A win would have erased my losses in one wicked swipe, but a loss would have put me on the brink of losing my entire bankroll.

As they had just thrashed West Ham a few days prior, and had Big Sam in as the new manager, I was counting on Everton booking a win, hopefully by 2 clear goals which would have meant I would win the full bet and be in the black.

Thankfully, a goal and assist from Calvert Lewin meant a 2-0 win was enough for me to book a big win, which I followed up with 2 more wins in a row. Sadly, I ended the week with 2 more losses, which really rankled me, especially the Sampdoria v Lazio game.

I had taken Sampdoria (+0.5) and went to bed with Sampdoria leading 1-0. When I woke up in the morning to check the scores, I got the bad news that a 91st minute Lazio winner meant the score was 1-2, which meant I lost my bet.

However, I’m thanking my lucky stars that I even managed to book a profit this week after starting so badly, and I hope it’ll never happen again!

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (98/190) / 51.5%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $566.94

2017 Week 47 Roundup – La Liga, UCL, AFC, BPL, Serie A

After a stellar week 46, I was planning to go all out to replicate what I had done for week 47.

Sadly, I was unable to live up to the previous weeks performance, and even needed a 94th minute penalty to save me from losing more than $200 instead.

All in all, I am up $77.09 for the week, and getting 5/9 right.

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Some highlights (and lowlights!) of the week:

  1. Odds that look too good to be true sometimes are. I took Betis with a +0.25 goal handicap as they were playing Eibar who were near the foot of the table, whereas Betis have been in pretty good form this season. After I woke up to a 5-0 thrashing of Betis, I knew the bookies know way more about this game than I do.
  2. Getting 2/2 in the midweek UCL games was undone by betting on the AFC Champions League Final second leg, which admittedly, I didn’t know much about.
  3. After winning about $90 betting on Chelsea and Watford, I proceeded to place a large bet on Over 3 in the Lazio game and a medium bet for AS Roma giving 0.75 goals to Genoa. Sadly, a red card for De Rossi after he conceded a penalty meant Genoa managed to equalise, and a big loss there.
  4. Things were compounded further when my big bet on Lazio was not paying dividends, and I made a brash move to bet a further $103 about 70 minutes into the game for over 1.5 goals (it was 1-0 at the time). After practically giving up on winning both my bets, I came back from the shower to see that Fiorentina had equalised to make the score 1-1 in the 94th minute, which meant I didn’t lose anything on the Lazio game!

Lessons learned : Don’t bet on leagues/teams you don’t know, and try not to gamble big to avoid a loss as I got really lucky with Fiorentina’s goal this week.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (95/181) / 52.5%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $512.25

2017 Week 46 Roundup – WCQ, Serie A, Bundesliga, La Liga

After a week of no betting, I could restrain myself no longer and started the week by betting on the World Cup play-offs with mixed results. A bit of luck on Saturday meant I didn’t lose any money (though I came real close!), and 3 correct predictions in a row on Sunday meant I ended the week up $163.84 with 6/8 predictions going my way.

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Some quick thoughts on my action in week 46:

  1. My overconfidence in the Ireland and Denmark game ending up in a stalemate backfired horribly when Eriksen ran riot with a hattrick.
  2. I came super close to losing on Over 3 bets in the Roma v Lazio and Napoli v AC Milan games. Thanks to some late goals (with one at the very death in the Napoli game), I managed to avoid losing on both these games. Good thing I didn’t buckle under pressure and sell my action!
  3. Was extremely proud of my 3 predictions on Sunday coming through, and was only slightly disappointed that I didn’t bet more on the Inter game as I had the best feeling about that one.

All in all, it was a great week, and hopefully I’ll be able to keep it up in week 47, especially with UCL games coming up!

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (89/172) / 51.7%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $435.16