2017 Week 34 – BPL, UCL, UEL, Serie A, Ligue 1, & La Liga

After last week’s losing week, things got worse this week as I booked a loss of $44.45.

Hopefully things will turn around but the international break in week 35 means I’ll probably have to wait awhile before any opportunities present themselves.

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  • Over 2.75 @ 0.84 on Man City vs Everton – LOSE $23
  • Hoffenheim (+1) on Liverpool vs Hoffenheim – LOSE $40
  • Under 2.5 @ 0.92 on CSKA vs Young Boys – WIN $10
  • Over 3 @ 0.96 on Athletic Bilbao vs Panathinaikos – LOSE $17
  • Watford (-0.5) on Watford vs BHA – LOSE $32
  • Over 2.5 @ 0.99 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $12
  • Over 2.75 @ -0.91 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $25
  • Over 3 @ 0.89 on Liverpool vs Arsenal – WIN $56.95
  • Mix Parlay – LOSE $2
  • Over 2.75 @ 0.95 on Fiorentina vs Sampdoria – WIN $14.25
  • Over 3 @ 0.91 on Monaco vs Marseille – WIN $18.20
  • Over 4 @ 0.90 on Real Madrid vs Valencia – DRAW

Some quick thoughts/gripes about this weeks action:

  • Was thinking of betting on Over 3 for the Hoffenheim game, but ended up taking Hoffenheim instead cost me there. Should always prioritise Over/Under bets when possible as I seem to do poorly on handicap bets.
  • Betting on the Bilbao game was impulsive, and lead to an unnecessary loss.
  • Got real unlucky on the Watford game because Britos got himself stupidly sent off and Watford couldn’t book an easy home win.
  • Can’t believe how I did not clear 2.5 and 2.75 goals in the Chelsea game after they took at 2-0 lead into half-time.

Hopefully I can turn this around soon!

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (40/81) / 49.4%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$277.46

2017 Week 33 – UCL, Super Cup, J League, BPL, & La Liga

Since the European season has begun, I’ve decided to post in a different format.

I will now summarise my bets by the week they were placed so I don’t end up with too many posts.

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  • Over 2.5 on Hoffenheim vs Liverpool – WIN $25.80
  • Draw @ 3.70 on Real Madrid vs Barcelona – LOSE $10
  • Over 2.75 on Urawa Red Diamonds vs FC Tokyo – WIN $12.75
  • Over 2.75 on Kashima Antlers vs Shimizu S Pulse – LOSE $23.60
  • Over 3 on Liverpool vs Crystal Palace – LOSE $55.80
  • Arsenal to win @ 1.85 – LOSE $30
  • Over 2.5 on Tottenham vs Chelsea – WIN $32.76
  • Real Madrid (-1.75) on Deportivo vs Real Madrid – WIN $15

Overall, I am down $33.90 for the week, so hopefully I can turn it around next week.

Some thoughts on this week:

  • The game which I thought was a banker ended up costing me the most as Liverpool and Palace played out a drab 1-0 game.
  • I’m not doing too well in the J League, so maybe it’s time to just focus on European football and only bet on Urawa when they’re playing other high scoring teams
  • After getting angry at losing the Liverpool game, I ended up throwing bad money after good by punting on Arsenal when I should have known better since they were playing Stoke away.
  • It could be time to start on betting on PSG, especially when they’re playing at home. They just seem to be scoring for fun, thrashing Toulouse 6-2 even with 10 men.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (36/71) / 50.8%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$233.01

BPL/CSL/Ligue 1/Spanish Super Cup 13/8/2017

After a profitable Saturday, the action continued on Sunday, where there was some bad decisions, bad luck, good luck, and great news for me.

The night started off with me taking Guangzhou Evergrande with a 1.5 goal handicap against Henan Jianye. Guangzhou took a 2-0 lead in the 86th minute, and I thought it was money in the bag until a meaningless 94th minute goal for Henan meant I couldn’t clear the handicap, and lost that one.

Soon after, I bet on Over 2.75 goals on the Manchester United vs West Ham game, which was a little bit of a slow burner. As the clock ticked down with United leading 2-0 and looking as though they weren’t going for more, I seriously considered selling my action to cut my losses. Thankfully I didn’t pull the trigger as 2 more goals in the last 5 minutes meant I won the full bet!

Right before heading to bed, I decided to place a speculative bet on Guingamp (+1.75) in their match vs PSG. Waking up to a 3-0 win for PSG meant that was money down the drain. This is a lesson to not place a bet just for the sake of betting

Finally, I also took Real Madrid (+0.5) in the Spanish Super cup against Barca. This was nothing more than a support bet, but it paid off big time after Ronaldo and Asensio absolutely destroyed Barcelona in the Camp Nou.

  1. Guangzhou (-1.5) vs Henan – LOSE $25
  2. Over 2.75 on Manchester United vs West Ham – WIN $22.25
  3. Guingamp (+1.75) vs PSG – LOSE $19.80
  4. Barcelona vs Real Madrid (+0.5) – WIN $40.02

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All in all, I am up $17.47 on the night. Not a huge amount, but every small step counts towards the fight back.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (32/63) / 50.8%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$199.11

BPL & La Liga Final Gameweek Betting Tips UPDATE

After the last round of matches in the Premier League and La Liga, this is how I fared:

  1. Real Madrid (-2 handicap) vs Malaga – $27 @ 0.96 – DRAW
    Brilliantly done by Real Madrid as we’ve won La Liga! With a 2-0 win, the bet was drawn, so this bet won’t be counted toward my overall prediction count.
  2. Atletico Madrid (-0.25 handicap) vs Athletic Bilbao – $27 @ 0.87 – WON
    As I predicted, Atleti went all out to win a meaningless game 3-1.
  3. Watford v Man City match – $27 on Over 3.5 goals @ 0.89 – WON
    Watford’s crap defence and City’s attack did not let me down in a 5-0 win for the Citizens
  4. Arsenal (-1.25 handicap) vs Everton – $27 @ 0.90 – WON
    This game started well but got squeaky when Koscielny was sent off, and Lukaku scored a pen to make it 2-1. However, a late goal from Ramsey meant Arsenal won 3-1 and was the difference between me losing half and winning 90% of my bet.

As the major league seasons draws to a close, I’ll be wondering what to bet on. Apart from the FA Cup, UEL and UCL finals, it’ll be a quiet few months until August.

Maybe it’s time to start learning about the Chinese Super League and Major League Soccer!

Up $71.80 on the night

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (10/15) / 66.6%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $199.20

BPL & La Liga Final Gameweek Betting Tips

As we dive into the last week of action for the Premier League and La Liga, I’ve decided to bet on 4 matches tonight with pretty decent odds. Hopefully I can go 4/4 and win around $100.

I’ve written about the final gameweek of the BPL yesterday, and the odds have changed a little since then. Below are the matches I’ve decided to actually have a punt on.

So this is what I’ve gone for, and the reasons why:

  1. Real Madrid (-2 handicap) vs Malaga – $27 @ 0.96
    Fanboy support bet to win the title, plain and simple. Hala Madrid!
  2. Atletico Madrid (-0.25 handicap) vs Athletic Bilbao – $27 @ 0.87
    Though both teams have nothing to play for, this will be Atleti’s last match at the Calderon, so they’ll want to go out on a high. Not to mention, Atleti have not lost to Athletic in their last 5 meetings
  3. Watford v Man City match – $27 on Over 3.5 goals @ 0.89
    Same logic I explained yesterday, with Watford’s crap defence and City’s attacking power, all I see are goals
  4. Arsenal (-1.25 handicap) vs Everton – $27 @ 0.90
    Same logic as before, as Arsenal have to win to have a hope of UCL qualification. Alexis Sanchez tends to end the season on a high note as well, so we could be in for the Sanchez show tonight

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All in all, $108 at stake tonight. Fingers crossed, and good luck to me!

Final gameweek Mix Parlay

As this is the final week of the season in Europe’s top leagues, I decided to have a flutter of $6 on Mix Parlay. Essentially this is my way of predicting many games, and putting my money (only a little) where my mouth is!

Naturally, I won’t be factoring these predictions in when calculating my win rate as it really is a 10,000 to 1 shot here. This is what I’ve gone for:

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Fingers crossed I get them all right, and it’s 60 grand in the bank!

Celta Vigo vs Real Madrid & Lazio vs Juventus betting tips UPDATE

 

  1. Celta Vigo 1 – 4 Real Madrid
    $26 on Real Madrid (-1.75 handicap) @ 0.79
    Won roughly $20.50 on this match thanks to the late Kroos goal. We just need 1 more point at Malaga and La Liga is ours. Hala Madrid!

  2. Juventus 2 – 0 Lazio
    $49 on Over 2.25 @ 0.88
    AND $49 on Juve to win in FT @ 2.12

– sold my action on the Over 2.25 bet at the 85th minute to only suffer a loss of $9 instead of $24.50 as I figured Juve would just shut up shop when up 2-0

– Won almost $55 on the other bet. A lot of regret for not seeing the odds of 2.12 before betting on Over 2.25, or I would definitely have put it all on Juve to win. It was great odds, and I’m surprised they offered such a healthy payout considering Juve were heavy favourites.

Up $66.80 on the night.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (7/12)

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $127.40