With the UCL and regular European games back in full swing for week 37, I was looking for a good week to rebound and build on my gains from week 36.
All in all, I am up $75.94 this week, and hopefully this will continue on!
Some quick thoughts on how this week panned out:
- Though I keep telling myself to not make rash decisions, I still ended up taking small, but ultimately failed punts on a few games without proper research. Hopefully I’ll be able to reign in the degenerate in me and cut out these silly bets.
- Was furious that I could not get over 2.75 goals in the Leipzig vs Monaco game in the UCL. Will make a mental note to be less trigger happy with over bets on RB Leipzig as they seem quite solid defensively.
- Spurs v Swansea and Chelsea v Arsenal ended 0-0, which I got completely wrong as I bet over 3 on both. UCL and UEL hangover maybe? Good point to consider when betting on these teams after midweek games.
- I have a 100& record in Serie A bets this season, which seems to be making a mockery of their defensive reputation by the fact that most of games cross the over lines. Hopefully this will continue, and I will focus and place larger bets on Serie A instead of the much more popular BPL
As usual, I will leave Mix Parlays out of my prediction count as they’re long shots more than anything.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (50/101) / 49.5%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$169.62
Due to the break for the World Cup Qualifiers, there wasn’t much action in week 35, which is why I’ve condensed Week 35 and 36 into the same post.
During week 35, I told myself to stay away from international games as they usually don’t bode too well, and it’s really hard to gauge the form of nations due to the small sample size and the fact that the players don’t play with each other frequently.
However, I wasn’t able to stay away, and ended up taking Malaysia (as it is my patriotic duty) in the final of the SEA Games against Thailand, and betting Under 2.5 on Hungary vs Latvia as I figured it’d be a low scoring affair.
Sadly, my home nation lost on home soil to Thailand, and the Hungarians and Latvians indulged in a goal fest to put me deep in the red for week 35.
Thankfully, things turned around during week 36, though I regret foolishly betting on the long odds of Liverpool beating City at the Etihad. Thankfully the fact that it rained goals over the weekend meant I got all my Over bets right!
- Malaysia (+0.25) in Malaysia vs Thailand – LOSE $18
- Under 2.5 on Hungary vs Latvia – LOSE $32
- Over 3 on Man City vs Liverpool – WIN $43.50
- Liverpool to win – LOSE $36
- Over 2.5 on Leicester vs Chelsea – WIN $44.50
- Over 2.5 on Juventus vs Chievo – WIN $25
- Swansea (-0.25) in Swansea vs Newcastle – LOSE $8.80
- Over 2.75 on Bologna vs Napoli – WIN $ 13.70
Overall, I am up $31.90 for these 2 weeks. It’s a small amount, but every small step is a step toward rebuilding my roll!
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (44/89) / 49.4%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$245.56
After last week’s losing week, things got worse this week as I booked a loss of $44.45.
Hopefully things will turn around but the international break in week 35 means I’ll probably have to wait awhile before any opportunities present themselves.
- Over 2.75 @ 0.84 on Man City vs Everton – LOSE $23
- Hoffenheim (+1) on Liverpool vs Hoffenheim – LOSE $40
- Under 2.5 @ 0.92 on CSKA vs Young Boys – WIN $10
- Over 3 @ 0.96 on Athletic Bilbao vs Panathinaikos – LOSE $17
- Watford (-0.5) on Watford vs BHA – LOSE $32
- Over 2.5 @ 0.99 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $12
- Over 2.75 @ -0.91 on Chelsea vs Everton – LOSE $25
- Over 3 @ 0.89 on Liverpool vs Arsenal – WIN $56.95
- Mix Parlay – LOSE $2
- Over 2.75 @ 0.95 on Fiorentina vs Sampdoria – WIN $14.25
- Over 3 @ 0.91 on Monaco vs Marseille – WIN $18.20
- Over 4 @ 0.90 on Real Madrid vs Valencia – DRAW
Some quick thoughts/gripes about this weeks action:
- Was thinking of betting on Over 3 for the Hoffenheim game, but ended up taking Hoffenheim instead cost me there. Should always prioritise Over/Under bets when possible as I seem to do poorly on handicap bets.
- Betting on the Bilbao game was impulsive, and lead to an unnecessary loss.
- Got real unlucky on the Watford game because Britos got himself stupidly sent off and Watford couldn’t book an easy home win.
- Can’t believe how I did not clear 2.5 and 2.75 goals in the Chelsea game after they took at 2-0 lead into half-time.
Hopefully I can turn this around soon!
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (40/81) / 49.4%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$277.46
Since the European season has begun, I’ve decided to post in a different format.
I will now summarise my bets by the week they were placed so I don’t end up with too many posts.
- Over 2.5 on Hoffenheim vs Liverpool – WIN $25.80
- Draw @ 3.70 on Real Madrid vs Barcelona – LOSE $10
- Over 2.75 on Urawa Red Diamonds vs FC Tokyo – WIN $12.75
- Over 2.75 on Kashima Antlers vs Shimizu S Pulse – LOSE $23.60
- Over 3 on Liverpool vs Crystal Palace – LOSE $55.80
- Arsenal to win @ 1.85 – LOSE $30
- Over 2.5 on Tottenham vs Chelsea – WIN $32.76
- Real Madrid (-1.75) on Deportivo vs Real Madrid – WIN $15
Overall, I am down $33.90 for the week, so hopefully I can turn it around next week.
Some thoughts on this week:
- The game which I thought was a banker ended up costing me the most as Liverpool and Palace played out a drab 1-0 game.
- I’m not doing too well in the J League, so maybe it’s time to just focus on European football and only bet on Urawa when they’re playing other high scoring teams
- After getting angry at losing the Liverpool game, I ended up throwing bad money after good by punting on Arsenal when I should have known better since they were playing Stoke away.
- It could be time to start on betting on PSG, especially when they’re playing at home. They just seem to be scoring for fun, thrashing Toulouse 6-2 even with 10 men.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (36/71) / 50.8%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$233.01
After a profitable Saturday, the action continued on Sunday, where there was some bad decisions, bad luck, good luck, and great news for me.
The night started off with me taking Guangzhou Evergrande with a 1.5 goal handicap against Henan Jianye. Guangzhou took a 2-0 lead in the 86th minute, and I thought it was money in the bag until a meaningless 94th minute goal for Henan meant I couldn’t clear the handicap, and lost that one.
Soon after, I bet on Over 2.75 goals on the Manchester United vs West Ham game, which was a little bit of a slow burner. As the clock ticked down with United leading 2-0 and looking as though they weren’t going for more, I seriously considered selling my action to cut my losses. Thankfully I didn’t pull the trigger as 2 more goals in the last 5 minutes meant I won the full bet!
Right before heading to bed, I decided to place a speculative bet on Guingamp (+1.75) in their match vs PSG. Waking up to a 3-0 win for PSG meant that was money down the drain. This is a lesson to not place a bet just for the sake of betting
Finally, I also took Real Madrid (+0.5) in the Spanish Super cup against Barca. This was nothing more than a support bet, but it paid off big time after Ronaldo and Asensio absolutely destroyed Barcelona in the Camp Nou.
- Guangzhou (-1.5) vs Henan – LOSE $25
- Over 2.75 on Manchester United vs West Ham – WIN $22.25
- Guingamp (+1.75) vs PSG – LOSE $19.80
- Barcelona vs Real Madrid (+0.5) – WIN $40.02
All in all, I am up $17.47 on the night. Not a huge amount, but every small step counts towards the fight back.
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (32/63) / 50.8%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$199.11
The English Premier League is back in town, and hopefully I’ll be able to profit from the matches on show.
It didn’t start off well with the goal fest between Arsenal and Leicester costing me my Under bet, but it improved when I got it right on my Over bet on the Watford vs Liverpool game which ended 3-3.
The weekend improved when Huddersfield beat Crystal Palace 3-0 to secure another win on my Over bet.
- Under 3 goals on Arsenal vs Leicester – LOSE $50
- Over 2.75 goals on Watford vs Liverpool – WIN $50
- Over 2.25 goals on Crystal Palace vs Huddersfield – WIN $45.65
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (30/59) / 50.8%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : -$216.58
After the last round of matches in the Premier League and La Liga, this is how I fared:
- Real Madrid (-2 handicap) vs Malaga – $27 @ 0.96 – DRAW
Brilliantly done by Real Madrid as we’ve won La Liga! With a 2-0 win, the bet was drawn, so this bet won’t be counted toward my overall prediction count.
- Atletico Madrid (-0.25 handicap) vs Athletic Bilbao – $27 @ 0.87 – WON
As I predicted, Atleti went all out to win a meaningless game 3-1.
- Watford v Man City match – $27 on Over 3.5 goals @ 0.89 – WON
Watford’s crap defence and City’s attack did not let me down in a 5-0 win for the Citizens
- Arsenal (-1.25 handicap) vs Everton – $27 @ 0.90 – WON
This game started well but got squeaky when Koscielny was sent off, and Lukaku scored a pen to make it 2-1. However, a late goal from Ramsey meant Arsenal won 3-1 and was the difference between me losing half and winning 90% of my bet.
As the major league seasons draws to a close, I’ll be wondering what to bet on. Apart from the FA Cup, UEL and UCL finals, it’ll be a quiet few months until August.
Maybe it’s time to start learning about the Chinese Super League and Major League Soccer!
Up $71.80 on the night
Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (10/15) / 66.6%
Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $199.20