So as we head into the final gameweek of the BPL season, I thought it’d be a good idea to check out the odds the day before the matches. As all the matches are played at the same time, we’ll have to identify the matches with the best odds, and hopefully win a little extra pocket money before the summer break starts.
At the moment, these are the odds, though they will probably change as the betting gets heavier as we get into Sunday.
Some initial thoughts:
I try to avoid betting on matches where both teams have nothing to play for. It’s really hard to make logical predictions when the players aren’t fully motivated. With that in mind, I’ll be focusing on the games involving Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City.
- Arsenal vs Everton
I’m pretty sure we’ll be seeing an Arsenal victory in this game as they need a win to keep their UCL hopes alive, while the conspiracy theorists/Liverpool fans will be saying Everton will rollover to deny Liverpool UCL qualification if they can.
I’d probably go for giving a 1.5 handicap @ -0.93. Recent meetings have shown 1 goal and 2 goal margin wins for Arsenal, so it could be a nervous one.I’m not sure if we’ll be able to see 4 goals in the match to clear the Over 3.25 line, but that could be something worth considering as well.
- Liverpool vs Middlesbrough
Liverpool are in the same boat as Arsenal, and need a win to guarantee UCL qualification. With Boro in free fall, we should see a routine Liverpool win.
Usually I’d be skeptical as Liverpool have been rather inconsistent against the lower sides, but with Boro’s terrible recent form and having already been relegated this is just a matter of how many goals Liverpool can score.
I’m never comfortable giving a handicap of 2.5 unless it’s Real Madrid, so I’d probably go for Over 3.25 goals @ 0.96. However, I might skip betting on this match altogether as the odds aren’t the greatest.
- Watford vs Manchester City
Again, I think there isn’t any doubt that City will be winning this match. Their last 5 meetings have resulted in City wins, and Watford have lost their last 5 games on the bounce.
Their defence is in shambles, and they have nothing to play for, with the head coach Mazarri rumoured to be out of the door at the end of the season. City themselves will need a win to guarantee 3rd spot (though a point might be enough if Liverpool don’t plaster Boro), but I think Pep isn’t the kind of guy who goes for draws. There’s only one man in Manchester for that.
Going with City (-1.75) @ 0.84 seems like the wise choice at this point, while Over 3.25 @ 0.89 seems extremely likely as well. Haven’t made up my mind, but I’ll probably be putting some money on one of these options.
Apart from the matches above, I do spot some opportunities, such as:
– Burnley to win @ 2.15 due to their home form and West Ham already mentally on holiday. Good payout as well.
– Over 2.5 @ 0.85 on Burnley vs West Ham as both these teams have leaky defences, while also packing decent scoring ability.
– Under 2.5 goals @ -0.96 for Manchester United vs Crystal Palace due to Jose probably playing the kids and parking the bus because he hates losing. This will probably be a dull game
– Tottenham (-1) @ 0.80 as Kane will be gunning hard for the Golden Boot and Spurs have beaten Hull in their last 3 meetings
– Under 2.5 goals @ 0.90 for Swansea v WBA as both teams have nothing to play for, and both don’t have a particularly strong attack.
I’d definitely be more confident in wagering on the first 3 matches, but that could change on Sunday!