2018 Week 6 Roundup – Serie A, La Liga, Ligue 1

After a steady week previously, I again told myself to focus on quality over quantity which meant I was up $280.80, with 3/5 games going my way.

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Somehow the bitter rivalry between Fiorentina and Juventus managed to end up 0-2 to the Bianconeri, which meant I lost half my bet.

Thankfully, 3 wins on a bounce (including a huge bet on the Napoli game with a suspiciously low 2.75 goal line) meant I was up more than $300 for the week.

Unfortunately, I couldn’t resist and decided to make a small punt on the Torino game which ended 2-0.

All in all, I would love for gradual growth every week, just like this one.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (146/281) / 51.95%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $2287.06

 

2018 Week 5 Roundup – TIM, BPL, Serie A, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga

After a slow and steady week 4, I told myself to keep it up, and managed to book a win of $199.49, with 8/15 predictions going my way, though the week wasn’t panning out too good until the last day.

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The week didn’t start too well, but I wasn’t stuck too badly. Unluckily for me, the games which I bet bigger on would end up losers, while the ones I bet less on would book a win. As I entered the final day, I was down about $206 for the week, with a few chances for a comeback.

If I continued the recklessness I showed in previous weeks, I’d probably have laid $500 or more on a game to book a win for the week, but I decided to play it safe and bet $207 on over 2.5 in the Bologna v Fiorentina game to break even.

Though the odds seemed suspiciously good (which usually raises alarm bells), I decided to go ahead and bet anyway.

As the clock ticked toward half-time and the score remained 0-0, I thought this would be another week where I’d have to dig myself out of a deep hole. Happily, a goal apiece from each team directly from corners meant the teams went in 1-1 at half time, with another goal from Fiorentina in the second half sealing the win.

After breaking even for the week, I figured I had enough ammo to fire $100 on over 3 goals in the Liverpool game which seemed very likely.

The game started well with Salah scoring inside 3 minutes, but the score remained that way until deep into the second half, where I seriously considered selling my action.

An absolute worldie from Wanyama in the 80th minute levelled the scores, and a penalty to Kane a few minutes later had me dreaming that I wouldn’t be losing money that night.

Tragically, Kane struck a crap penalty straight at Karius, and I thought that was it for me.

But I could not believe my eyes at what was about to happen next.

A 91st minute goal from the effervescent Salah meant I could not lose, but even more drama unfolded a minute later when the assistant referee flagged for a (rather soft) penalty for Spurs.

Kane would not be denied at the second time of asking, and I had somehow managed to snatch a win from the jaws of defeat.

Before I went to bed, I was feeling lucky and decided to place a bet of over 3 on the Monaco v Lyon game as these two teams have been scoring freely as of late. That turned out pretty well when I woke up the next morning to a 3-2 win for Monaco.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (143/276) / 51.8%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $2006.26

2018 Week 4 Roundup – BPL, Serie A, La Liga, Ligue 1, Bundesliga

After a crazy week 3, I managed to tone it down and booked a profit of $108.33, with 4/8 predictions coming true.

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I started the week off badly when Swansea somehow edged Liverpool 1-0 in a low scoring affair, but managed to rebound with my perennial favourites Lazio and my precious Real getting involved in a couple of high scoring games.

The week took a turn for the worse when PSG comprehensively smashed the defensive Montpellier, while Leverkusen and Mainz couldn’t come close to the 3.25 goal line.

Thankfully, I managed to salvage my week with Lazio playing a big part again when I placed a large bet on over 2.5 which was over by half time when AC Milan took a 2-1 lead into the break.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (135/261) / 51.7%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $1806.77

2018 Week 3 Roundup – Ligue 1, Bundesliga, BPL, Serie A

After a quiet week 2, I knew it would not last for long as it all went helter skelter this week.

All in all, I managed to get lucky and escape again with a profit of $278.38 with 3/8 going right, though the numbers don’t tell the whole story.

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So what happened?

I started the week well with two midweek Ligue 1 games going my way, with a profit of $100+ to boot, and I was confident I could maintain my momentum with a slow and steady week of progress.

Sadly, the best laid plans were shot to shit once the weekend came around as I had a torrid Saturday with 3/3 going wrong. The BPL really ain’t my league even though I watch it the most!

I figured I would make a grand comeback on Sunday betting on my favourite league, but that didn’t turn out too well either:

First, I placed a large bet on Over 2.5 in the Atalanta v Napoli game which was looking bleak with no goals until the 60+ minute.

Sadly, I compounded the matter by placing an even larger bet on over 1.5 goals when the score was 0-1, and the game ended with that scoreline which kept me in big trouble. A big parlay bet to save me (like how it did a couple of weeks back) didn’t turn out as well as it did last time, and I was staring down the barrel of a $721 loss for the week.

As the familiar feeling of desperation seized me, I checked the ongoing games and saw that the game between Bayern and Bremen was becoming a bona fide goal fest, and was 3-2 with about 10 minutes to go.

I whispered a prayer and placed the largest bet I’ve ever placed ($1000) on over 5.5 goals and switched over to watch the game on TV.

As luck would have it, within a minute of me watching, James Rodriguez chips the ball over the Bremen defence for Thomas Muller to slot past the keeper to make it 4-2, and I ended the week in the black!

This really isn’t for the faint hearted, and though I tell myself time and time again to bet conservatively and not chase losses, it just keeps happening and I dread the day my luck will run out.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (131/253) / 51.8%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $1698.44

2018 Week 2 Roundup – CDR, Bundesliga, La Liga, BPL

After last week’s great escape, I decided to tone down the gambling and bet more conservatively.

All in all, I am up $144, with 4/7 predictions going right for the week.

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Some quick thoughts on the week:

  1. late 95th minute goal from FC Koln was the difference between winning and losing half my bet.
  2. Liverpool and Manchester City played out a crazy game which meant I cleared the over 3 goal line easily, and should very well have bet much more on a game that promised so many goals!

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (128/245) / 52.2%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $1420.06

2018 Week 1 Roundup – BPL, TIM, Portuguese League, CDR, Serie A, La Liga

Welcome to 2018, and what a way to start the New Year!

It’s been a roller coaster first week, as I was down $609.99 at one stage, before a bold roll of the dice on a mix parlay helped me claw back the deficit, with a final dash of 3/3 bets going right to end the week up $69.02, with a paltry 4/11 predictions going right.

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The week started well when I made a speculative punt of over 1.5 goals in the 90th minute with Liverpool leading 1-0, with 2 late goals giving me a great start to the New Year.

However, what followed after was MUCH less fun as I reeled off loss after loss, each closer than the last:

  • Spurs missing numerous chances in a 2-0 win when 1 more goal would have won me half the bet
  • Same story as above in the Turin derby in the TIM cup
  • Benfica vs Sporting Lisbon ending 1-1 which meant I only lost half
  • The worst was probably the London derby between Arsenal and Chelsea, when a 93rd minute Bellerin equaliser meant I lost half the bet, with Zappacosta hitting the post a minute later to compound my misery of what could have been
  • Celta Vigo drew 1-1 with Barcelona in the Copa Del Rey, with the scores tied at half time, and the woodwork being hit more than once, along with more than 10 shots on target from both teams in total
  • Fiorentina vs Inter ended in a 1-1 stalemate to put me deep in the red, and desperate for a miracle

But when that miracle came, it came in glorious fashion!

I took a deep breath and punted $80 on a mix parlay, and somehow got all of it right (below), which pocketed me a win of $576.05 to narrow my losses.

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A misstep in Serie A aside (where I bet over 1.5 at half time in the Juventus game that ended 0-1), I reeled off 3 winning bets in La Liga in one night to seal a barely believable profit for the week, again telling myself not to get myself into such deep holes again.

As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (124/238) / 52.1%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $1276.06

2017 Week 52 Roundup – BPL, TIM, Serie A

And so as 2017 draws to a close, I managed to keep up my momentum and end the final week on a high with a profit of $203.08, with 7/10 predictions going my way. Games greyed out don’t count as they ended up in a draw.

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I started the week well getting 3/3 on the Boxing Day BPL games, but lost my mojo slightly when I made a rash Over 3 bet on the Crotone v Napoli game which ended 0-1 even though Napoli had 20+ shots with 7 or 8 landing on target.

Luckily, I was 3/3 again in Serie A over the weekend to balance out the 1/3 I got right on the BPL. It certainly looks like the Serie A breaks are costing me potential winnings at the moment!

Sadly, I could have improved on my profit for the week, but got 1 prediction wrong (Over 2.75 on Chelsea vs BHA, which ended 2-0) in my mix parlay below. Talk about a close one!

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As usual, I won’t be including mix parlay’s in the prediction count, though I do include the profit & loss.

Correct Prediction Count (since blog inception) : (120/227) / 52.8%

Profit/Loss (since blog inception) : $1207.04